Market Analysis

Marin Group
Market Commentary

July 2022

The markets continue their corrective behavior as forecast but there are some warning signs pointing to a possible deeper decline than we first thought.  This in no way changes our long-term forecast of a bull market that will be more powerful than most alive have seen, it may just mean we begin this next stage from a lower level.  While certain indicators our research partners follow are nearing levels where past market bottoms have occurred, others are not there yet.  Our investment process, culling out stocks that violate levels that should have been supported and holding ones that stay in trend, does not change.  Our process does not try and “time the market,” which presumes one knows the exact time to get fully in or out of the market, we move money where the market shows us leadership at a reasonable price.  Sometimes the market says the most prudent action is to wait, and that is, for the short term, what we think it is saying now.

It is easy to take one’s “eye off the ball” when actively managing portfolios by listening to the current news and acting out of a response to what is happening, and disregarding tried and true methods that have navigated through the toughest times.  We do not operate this way.  There are two ways for our indicators to get into a position that indicates a low has been formed – Either churn gradually lower and frustrate people to a point where most investors give up or drop in a fashion that creates a panic exit (sell).  At this point we do not know which will happen, but we will be ready to act based on our research when the time comes.  We believe the market could bottom around the lower end of our forecasted range at Dow 28,500 if the former scenario takes place and Dow 25,000 may be the level prices need to go to if the latter scenario takes place.

As always, if you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to give us a call or send us an email.

Thank you for your trust in us.

Gary and Dianne

 

This report is provided as a general market overview and should not be considered investment or tax advice or predictive of any future market performance.

Any security mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors. No investment mentioned in this newsletter constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a particular investment. Such recommendations can only be made on an individual basis after an assessment of an individual investor’s risk tolerance and personal circumstances. Past performance of any investment mentioned is not a guarantee of future performance. Statements regarding the investment concerns and merits of any company and fair market value computations are strictly the opinion of Marin Group. Employees of Marin Group and Marin Group clients may have positions and effect transactions in the securities of the issuers mentioned herein.