Market Analysis

Marin Group
Market Commentary

July 2024

At this mid-year moment one can only say, “So far so good.”  But people may be starting to think, “How much farther can it go?”  Our answer is a lot farther than anyone may think.  Short term there are warning signs of a correction but that is just what we think it will be, short term.  This bull market leg has been a little out of the ordinary in that the leadership sectors have not changed much since the low in 2020.  Usually, corrections begin to occur because leadership changes and the profit cycle rewards other sectors with superior earnings growth.  As one of our research partners that sees this very thing happening says, “It seems investors have not noticed acceleration in earnings growth in anything other than big tech.”  This is likely to change soon, and it is something of which we are ready to take advantage.

As we mentioned in our last commentary, the markets continue their “slow push” upwards as is characteristic of summer trading in a bull market.  Also, holidays tend to lend an upward bias to trading, albeit light on volume.  Perhaps this will be a typical year where the push higher takes a break in the September-October timeframe and the correction/leadership change finally takes place.  We intend to be ready however it plays out.

 Gary and Dianne

This report is provided as a general market overview and should not be considered investment or tax advice or predictive of any future market performance.

Any security mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors. No investment mentioned in this newsletter constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a particular investment. Such recommendations can only be made on an individual basis after an assessment of an individual investor’s risk tolerance and personal circumstances. Past performance of any investment mentioned is not a guarantee of future performance. Statements regarding the investment concerns and merits of any company and fair market value computations are strictly the opinion of Marin Group. Employees of Marin Group and Marin Group clients may have positions and effect transactions in the securities of the issuers mentioned herein.