Market Analysis

This year’s “January Barometer” (The hypothesis that stock market performance in January, particularly in the U.S., predicts its performance for the rest of the year. So, if the stock market rises in January, it is likely to continue to rise by the end of December.) was positive so if the convention holds, we should have a positive return in 2025. Obviously, no indicator is foolproof but given the healthy underlying condition of the market it seems logical to assume we should have a good year.

Sectors come in and out of favor and the amount of time they stay in favor varies. Even when they are out of favor it does not necessarily mean they go down in value, they just are not the sector that is gaining the most in value. The large tech sector, particularly the “Magnificent 7” (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSLA) have led for an extended period. It is our view that they are likely to take a back seat for a while as other sectors play catch up and become the leaders going forward for a while. It is our job to give portfolios exposure to these new leaders while keeping a balance of diversification for risk purposes. Eventually the international sector will come alive, and we have a list of ETFs we will use to give exposure to this part of the investment landscape.

The market still seems to be “climbing the wall of worry” (The phrase refers to the market’s ability to show resilience in the face of economic or corporate news that might otherwise spark a selloff and instead keep pushing securities higher.) and there is sufficient reason to suggest the bull market has a long time to go. That makes us happy, and we hope the same for you.

Gary and Dianne

This report is provided as a general market overview and should not be considered investment or tax advice or predictive of any future market performance.

Any security mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors. No investment mentioned in this newsletter constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a particular investment. Such recommendations can only be made on an individual basis after an assessment of an individual investor’s risk tolerance and personal circumstances. Past performance of any investment mentioned is not a guarantee of future performance. Statements regarding the investment concerns and merits of any company and fair market value computations are strictly the opinion of Marin Group. Employees of Marin Group and Marin Group clients may have positions and effect transactions in the securities of the issuers mentioned herein.