Market Analysis

In light of recent events, we want to update you on our thoughts about the current market condition.

Our long term forecast for the beginning of a new leg up in the bull market that began in March 2020 is unchanged.  Our premise is that this outlook remains the highest probability scenario, as long as the low of October 2022 is not materially breached. 

1. As we have said before, bear markets do not start with scary, apocalyptic events, they end with them.  The Pandemic low is a good example of this. The crash that occurred between February and March 2020 was the end of a 2 ½ year “bump correction” and represented the final low. It is impossible to tell, ahead of time, where the final low will be, but given the amount of fear present in investors we think it is close at hand.
2. As we mentioned in our last commentary, rate hike cycles hit bank stocks at first but after a time they stabilize and then they typically outperform the market.  Over the past two years we lowered our exposure to bank stocks in anticipation of higher inflation and the pressure the Fed would face to raise rates.
3. We are here to answer any questions or concerns you might have and again appreciate your trust in our managing your money. It is a responsibility we take very seriously.

Gary and Dianne

This report is provided as a general market overview and should not be considered investment or tax advice or predictive of any future market performance.

Any security mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors. No investment mentioned in this newsletter constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a particular investment. Such recommendations can only be made on an individual basis after an assessment of an individual investor’s risk tolerance and personal circumstances. Past performance of any investment mentioned is not a guarantee of future performance. Statements regarding the investment concerns and merits of any company and fair market value computations are strictly the opinion of Marin Group. Employees of Marin Group and Marin Group clients may have positions and effect transactions in the securities of the issuers mentioned herein.